A tray of microgreen mix in the Missouri microgreens budget yields 11.5 ounces and sells for $46. Operating costs take $30.06 of that, leaving $15.94. Depreciation and interest on the equipment come to $46.15 a month, so three trays a month cover the equipment. Add $500 a month of rent and the number jumps to 35, which is 95% of what that shelf can grow.
The calculator below takes your price, yield, costs and shelf count and gives break-even in trays per month, week and year, how many shelves that takes, and what is left if you sell everything. Below it: the formula and the three inputs that move the answer most.
Microgreens break-even calculator
- Use the price you actually get paid, not the one on your price list. If some trays go to restaurants wholesale and some to a farmers market, use the average or run the calculator twice.
- Yield depends on the crop and the tray. Per-crop numbers are in the breakdown of profit per tray.
- Variable costs grow with every tray: seed, growing medium, clamshell, label, electricity. Fixed costs are due even in a month you sell nothing: rent, depreciation, loan interest, insurance, wages.
- The Missouri budget counts $5 of labor per tray as a variable cost, which is why the default for “Labor, marketing, other” is $13.60. If you pay yourself a salary instead, set that line lower and put the salary under “Wages and other.”
The break-even formula
Break-even trays = fixed costs per month ÷ margin per tray. Margin per tray = revenue per tray - variable cost per tray. Revenue per tray = price per ounce × ounces per tray.
With the defaults: 11.5 × $4.00 = $46.00 of revenue. Variable costs are $30.06, so the margin is $15.94. Fixed costs are $553.79 a year, or $46.15 a month. Divide: 46.15 ÷ 15.94 = 2.9. Two trays do not quite cover it, so the calculator rounds up to three, or 35 a year.
Where each line comes from is laid out in what it costs to start a microgreens business: one shelf, 16 growing positions, 432 trays of mix a year, which is where the default of 36 trays per shelf per month comes from. The same formula in pounds instead of trays is in the wiki entry on launching microgreens production.
What moves break-even the most
Fixed costs are divided by the margin, and the margin is the difference between two numbers. A small change in price or yield hits the result harder than it looks. Three examples on the Missouri mix:
| What changed | Margin per tray | Break-even per month | Per year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing, the baseline | $15.94 | 3 trays | 35 trays |
| Price 10% lower, $3.60 an ounce | $11.34 | 5 trays | 49 trays |
| Yield 20% lower, 9.2 oz a tray | $6.74 | 7 trays | 83 trays |
| Rent of $500 a month | $15.94 | 35 trays | 412 trays |
A 20% drop in yield more than doubles break-even, because the clamshell, label and seed cost the same while you sell fewer ounces. In this budget, labels and packaging alone are $11.22 a tray, a quarter of the revenue. A thin stand or a harvest cut a day early costs more than it looks like on one tray.
Rent works differently. Every $100 a month of fixed costs adds 6.3 trays a month. With $500 of rent, a one-shelf business has to sell 412 of its 432 trays a year just to break even. Combine that rent with the 20% yield drop and break-even rises to 82 trays a month, more than twice what the shelf can grow. The calculator flags that case.
Price moves most easily through pack size. In what chefs actually pay per ounce, the same grower charges 5.4 times more per ounce once the greens go into a smaller pack. Try your small-pack price in the calculator and add the extra packaging to the variable costs.
What the calculator cannot see
- Demand. It tells you how many trays you need to sell, not how many anyone will buy. If break-even is higher than what you can realistically sell, you have your answer.
- Shrink. A tray that grows past harvest or never ships has variable costs and no revenue. If you lose one tray in ten, add a tenth of the per-tray cost to the variable costs.
- Working capital. You pay for seed, clamshells and power before the tray sells, and a restaurant may pay weekly or monthly. That money has to be there up front.
- Seasons. If sales vary by month, run the weakest month separately.
Why farms that ran these numbers still close is covered in why microgreens farms fail. More tools are on the calculators page.
Microgreens break-even: the short version
- Break-even = fixed costs ÷ (revenue per tray - variable cost per tray).
- For the Missouri mix at $4.00 an ounce, equipment alone breaks even at 3 trays a month, 35 a year.
- Every $100 a month of fixed costs adds 6.3 trays a month. A 20% drop in yield more than doubles break-even.
- The calculator tells you how much to sell. Whether you can sell that much is the part to check before buying equipment.
